000 WTNT80 EGRR 271618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.08.2016 TROPICAL STORM GASTON ANALYSED POSITION : 28.2N 53.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.08.2016 28.2N 53.0W MODERATE 00UTC 28.08.2016 29.0N 54.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2016 30.2N 54.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2016 30.8N 55.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2016 31.0N 55.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2016 31.3N 54.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2016 31.7N 53.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2016 32.2N 52.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2016 33.0N 51.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2016 34.2N 50.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2016 36.3N 48.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2016 38.6N 44.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2016 39.8N 38.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE LESTER ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 117.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.08.2016 18.0N 117.9W STRONG 00UTC 28.08.2016 18.0N 120.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2016 18.0N 122.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2016 18.1N 125.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2016 18.1N 128.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2016 18.1N 131.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2016 18.3N 134.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2016 18.4N 136.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2016 18.5N 138.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2016 18.8N 140.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2016 19.1N 143.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2016 19.7N 144.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2016 20.0N 147.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM MADELINE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 138.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.08.2016 15.0N 138.5W MODERATE 00UTC 28.08.2016 16.0N 139.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2016 16.7N 141.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2016 17.5N 142.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2016 18.3N 144.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2016 19.2N 145.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2016 20.1N 147.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2016 20.7N 150.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2016 20.7N 152.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2016 20.5N 154.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2016 20.2N 157.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2016 20.2N 159.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 24.6N 82.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.08.2016 24.8N 83.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2016 24.8N 84.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2016 25.0N 86.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2016 24.9N 87.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2016 25.5N 87.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2016 25.9N 87.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2016 26.1N 87.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2016 27.0N 86.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2016 28.2N 86.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 34.8N 75.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.08.2016 35.2N 75.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2016 35.6N 75.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2016 36.1N 73.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2016 37.3N 68.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2016 39.7N 62.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2016 42.5N 56.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2016 45.1N 50.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 18.0N 21.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 31.08.2016 18.0N 21.4W WEAK 12UTC 31.08.2016 17.8N 25.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2016 18.1N 29.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2016 18.4N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2016 18.7N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2016 18.8N 42.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 31.9N 73.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.09.2016 31.8N 72.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.09.2016 32.7N 68.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 16.0N 167.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.09.2016 16.0N 168.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 271618