000 WTNT80 EGRR 230418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.08.2016 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.5N 61.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2016 25.5N 61.4W WEAK 12UTC 23.08.2016 26.0N 63.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2016 26.6N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2016 27.4N 68.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2016 28.0N 70.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2016 28.8N 72.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2016 29.3N 73.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2016 29.5N 75.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KAY ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 118.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2016 22.0N 118.3W WEAK 12UTC 23.08.2016 22.5N 120.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2016 23.0N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM 07L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 30.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2016 12.0N 30.6W WEAK 12UTC 23.08.2016 12.8N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2016 14.1N 36.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2016 15.5N 39.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2016 17.3N 42.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2016 19.2N 44.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2016 21.3N 46.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2016 23.6N 48.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2016 25.6N 51.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2016 26.4N 53.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2016 28.3N 54.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2016 29.5N 55.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2016 30.3N 55.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 18.5N 63.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.08.2016 19.5N 65.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2016 21.5N 68.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2016 23.1N 71.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2016 24.4N 72.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2016 25.8N 73.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2016 27.3N 74.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2016 28.6N 77.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2016 29.5N 80.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2016 30.0N 84.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.8N 121.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.08.2016 15.8N 121.0W WEAK 12UTC 27.08.2016 16.3N 122.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2016 16.5N 123.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2016 16.3N 125.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2016 17.3N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.2N 135.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.08.2016 16.0N 135.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2016 16.5N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2016 17.2N 137.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2016 18.8N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 230418