000
WTNT80 EGRR 050418

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.08.2016

        TROPICAL STORM EARL       ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N  91.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 05.08.2016  18.0N  91.1W   MODERATE
 12UTC 05.08.2016  18.5N  93.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.08.2016  18.8N  95.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.08.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM IVETTE     ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 128.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 05.08.2016  15.0N 128.4W   MODERATE
 12UTC 05.08.2016  14.9N 130.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.08.2016  15.2N 133.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.08.2016  15.8N 134.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.08.2016  16.7N 136.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.08.2016  17.3N 137.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.08.2016  17.9N 139.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.08.2016  18.6N 141.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.08.2016  19.0N 143.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.08.2016  19.1N 145.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.08.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  54 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 18.2N 104.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.08.2016  18.6N 105.4W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 08.08.2016  19.5N 107.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.08.2016  20.7N 108.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.08.2016  21.1N 110.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.08.2016  21.3N 110.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.08.2016  22.4N 110.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.08.2016  23.6N 111.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 11.08.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 28.3N  84.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 08.08.2016  28.3N  84.4W     WEAK
 12UTC 08.08.2016  28.3N  84.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.08.2016  28.3N  84.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 09.08.2016  28.3N  84.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 10.08.2016  28.4N  85.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 10.08.2016  28.7N  86.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 11.08.2016  29.5N  86.5W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 050418