000 WTNT80 EGRR 040418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.08.2016 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 135.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.08.2016 21.4N 135.9W WEAK 12UTC 04.08.2016 22.0N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2016 22.0N 142.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2016 22.0N 145.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2016 22.0N 148.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2016 21.7N 151.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE EARL ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 86.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.08.2016 17.2N 86.9W MODERATE 12UTC 04.08.2016 17.5N 89.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2016 18.0N 91.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2016 17.8N 94.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM IVETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 123.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.08.2016 14.7N 123.0W MODERATE 12UTC 04.08.2016 14.8N 125.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2016 14.8N 128.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2016 14.6N 131.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2016 14.6N 133.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2016 14.8N 135.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2016 15.6N 136.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2016 16.1N 137.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2016 16.5N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2016 17.0N 140.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2016 17.2N 142.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2016 17.3N 143.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 34.7N 71.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.08.2016 34.9N 70.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 05.08.2016 35.6N 66.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2016 36.7N 64.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 18.3N 103.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.08.2016 18.3N 103.9W MODERATE 12UTC 07.08.2016 19.0N 105.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2016 20.0N 107.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2016 20.8N 108.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2016 21.1N 108.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2016 21.4N 108.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2016 22.3N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 28.7N 87.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.08.2016 28.7N 87.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 040417