000
WTNT80 EGRR 021617

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.08.2016

        TROPICAL STORM HOWARD     ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 128.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 02.08.2016  18.4N 128.5W   MODERATE
 00UTC 03.08.2016  19.4N 130.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.08.2016  20.3N 133.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.08.2016  20.6N 136.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 04.08.2016  20.7N 139.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.08.2016  20.8N 142.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.08.2016  20.9N 145.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.08.2016  20.9N 148.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.08.2016  20.7N 151.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.08.2016  20.6N 154.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.08.2016  20.9N 157.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.08.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER   6 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+  6 : 15.9N  80.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 03.08.2016  15.5N  82.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.08.2016  16.0N  84.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.08.2016  16.3N  87.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.08.2016  16.1N  89.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.08.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  42 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 15.4N 124.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 04.08.2016  15.9N 125.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.08.2016  16.1N 128.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.08.2016  16.4N 130.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.08.2016  16.7N 133.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.08.2016  16.6N 136.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.08.2016  16.6N 139.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.08.2016  16.3N 141.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.08.2016  16.4N 143.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.08.2016  16.3N 146.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 16.3N 100.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 06.08.2016  16.8N 101.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 07.08.2016  17.6N 103.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 07.08.2016  18.3N 106.1W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.08.2016  18.7N 107.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.08.2016  19.2N 108.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 33.3N  48.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 07.08.2016  33.0N  48.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.08.2016  33.3N  46.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.08.2016  34.7N  45.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.08.2016  38.0N  44.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 021617