000 WTNT80 EGRR 180418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.07.2016 TROPICAL STORM CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 152.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.07.2016 23.4N 152.1W WEAK 12UTC 18.07.2016 23.9N 154.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.07.2016 24.4N 157.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.07.2016 23.9N 160.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.07.2016 24.2N 163.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2016 25.0N 166.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.07.2016 26.4N 168.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.07.2016 28.5N 170.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.07.2016 31.7N 173.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.07.2016 34.7N 177.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.07.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE DARBY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 128.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.07.2016 18.4N 128.7W STRONG 12UTC 18.07.2016 18.7N 130.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.07.2016 19.4N 132.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2016 20.3N 135.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.07.2016 20.7N 137.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.07.2016 20.6N 140.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.07.2016 20.2N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.07.2016 19.5N 144.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.07.2016 19.0N 146.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.07.2016 18.6N 149.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.07.2016 18.5N 151.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.07.2016 18.3N 152.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.07.2016 18.9N 153.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 113.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.07.2016 16.9N 113.2W MODERATE 12UTC 18.07.2016 17.6N 115.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.07.2016 18.3N 116.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.07.2016 18.8N 118.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.07.2016 19.2N 120.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2016 19.6N 123.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.07.2016 20.0N 125.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.07.2016 20.3N 127.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.07.2016 21.6N 130.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.07.2016 23.3N 132.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.07.2016 25.3N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.07.2016 27.2N 136.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.07.2016 28.9N 138.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.2N 101.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.07.2016 13.6N 102.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.07.2016 13.8N 104.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.07.2016 14.1N 107.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.07.2016 14.7N 109.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 11.6N 120.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.07.2016 11.6N 120.7W WEAK 00UTC 23.07.2016 12.5N 123.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.07.2016 12.9N 125.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.07.2016 13.3N 127.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180418