000
WTNT80 EGRR 161617

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.07.2016

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA      ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 146.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 16.07.2016  22.2N 146.0W     WEAK
 00UTC 17.07.2016  22.4N 148.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.07.2016  22.3N 150.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.07.2016  22.8N 152.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.07.2016  23.1N 154.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.07.2016  23.5N 157.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.07.2016  23.7N 159.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.07.2016  24.3N 162.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.07.2016  24.9N 165.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.07.2016  26.7N 167.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.07.2016  28.6N 170.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.07.2016  32.2N 172.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.07.2016  35.0N 177.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             HURRICANE DARBY      ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 123.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 16.07.2016  17.7N 123.5W    STRONG
 00UTC 17.07.2016  18.1N 125.5W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 17.07.2016  18.1N 127.2W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 18.07.2016  18.4N 129.0W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 18.07.2016  18.7N 131.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.07.2016  19.1N 133.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.07.2016  19.4N 135.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.07.2016  19.4N 137.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.07.2016  19.2N 139.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.07.2016  18.9N 141.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.07.2016  18.5N 144.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.07.2016  18.3N 146.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.07.2016  17.9N 148.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

        TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE    ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 109.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 16.07.2016  16.0N 109.0W   MODERATE
 00UTC 17.07.2016  16.3N 110.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 17.07.2016  16.7N 112.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 18.07.2016  17.5N 113.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.07.2016  18.1N 115.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.07.2016  19.1N 116.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.07.2016  19.6N 118.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.07.2016  19.8N 120.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.07.2016  19.9N 122.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 21.07.2016  20.0N 125.2W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 21.07.2016  20.5N 127.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 22.07.2016  21.1N 130.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.07.2016  22.0N 132.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 12.3N 120.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 22.07.2016  12.7N 121.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 161617