000
WTNT80 EGRR 111617

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.07.2016

             HURRICANE CELIA      ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 125.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 11.07.2016  14.8N 125.2W    STRONG
 00UTC 12.07.2016  15.3N 126.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.07.2016  16.4N 128.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.07.2016  17.9N 130.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.07.2016  19.4N 132.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 14.07.2016  20.5N 135.2W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 14.07.2016  21.7N 137.3W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.07.2016  22.8N 139.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 15.07.2016  23.3N 141.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.07.2016  24.2N 143.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.07.2016  25.0N 145.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.07.2016  25.8N 147.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.07.2016  26.4N 149.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.8N 110.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 13.07.2016  15.8N 110.0W     WEAK
 12UTC 13.07.2016  15.7N 112.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.07.2016  15.9N 114.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.07.2016  16.1N 116.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.07.2016  16.4N 118.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.07.2016  17.2N 120.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.07.2016  18.0N 123.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.07.2016  18.6N 125.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.07.2016  18.8N 127.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.07.2016  18.7N 130.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  84 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 10.9N  98.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 15.07.2016  10.9N  98.0W     WEAK
 12UTC 15.07.2016  11.2N  99.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 16.07.2016  12.1N 101.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.07.2016  12.3N 104.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.07.2016  12.3N 105.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 17.07.2016  13.0N 107.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 111617