000
WTNT80 EGRR 110418

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.07.2016

             HURRICANE CELIA      ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 123.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 11.07.2016  14.8N 123.0W   MODERATE
 12UTC 11.07.2016  14.7N 125.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.07.2016  15.0N 127.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.07.2016  15.8N 128.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.07.2016  17.0N 130.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.07.2016  18.2N 132.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.07.2016  19.2N 134.5W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 14.07.2016  20.4N 136.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.07.2016  21.1N 139.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 15.07.2016  21.5N 141.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.07.2016  21.5N 144.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.07.2016  21.4N 147.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.07.2016  21.6N 149.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  18 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 14.6N 105.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 12.07.2016  15.3N 105.7W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 12.07.2016  16.1N 108.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.07.2016  15.9N 110.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 13.07.2016  15.7N 112.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 14.07.2016  15.9N 115.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.07.2016  16.1N 117.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.07.2016  16.6N 120.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.07.2016  17.2N 122.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.07.2016  17.5N 125.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.07.2016  17.4N 126.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.07.2016  17.3N 128.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.2N  89.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 16.07.2016  10.2N  89.7W     WEAK
 12UTC 16.07.2016  10.4N  90.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.07.2016  10.6N  92.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 110418