000
WTNT80 EGRR 151618

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.01.2016

             HURRICANE ALEX       ANALYSED POSITION : 37.9N  26.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 15.01.2016  37.9N  26.9W   MODERATE
 00UTC 16.01.2016  45.0N  28.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 16.01.2016  53.7N  31.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.01.2016  POST-TROPICAL

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALI       ANALYSED POSITION :  0.6N 173.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 15.01.2016   0.6N 173.4W     WEAK
 00UTC 16.01.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  18 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 37.4N  75.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 16.01.2016  39.5N  70.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 17.01.2016  43.0N  61.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 17.01.2016  44.1N  52.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.01.2016  47.5N  41.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.01.2016  50.2N  34.8W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 19.01.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  42 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 22.6S  39.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 17.01.2016  23.1S  38.4W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 18.01.2016  24.8S  37.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.01.2016  26.4S  36.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.01.2016  27.5S  35.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.01.2016  28.9S  33.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.01.2016  29.4S  31.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.01.2016  30.0S  29.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.01.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 151618