000 WTNT80 EGRR 141617 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.01.2016 HURRICANE ALEX ANALYSED POSITION : 30.9N 28.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.01.2016 30.9N 28.7W STRONG 00UTC 15.01.2016 34.2N 27.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.01.2016 38.1N 27.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.01.2016 44.7N 28.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.01.2016 53.2N 31.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.01.2016 POST-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALI ANALYSED POSITION : 2.3N 172.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.01.2016 2.3N 172.8W WEAK 00UTC 15.01.2016 1.4N 173.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.01.2016 0.8N 173.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.01.2016 0.5N 173.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.01.2016 0.2N 173.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.01.2016 1.1S 172.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.01.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 25.6S 37.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.01.2016 25.6S 37.7W WEAK 00UTC 18.01.2016 26.7S 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.01.2016 27.5S 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.01.2016 27.6S 36.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.01.2016 28.2S 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.01.2016 27.9S 32.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.01.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 141617