000 WTNT80 EGRR 051618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.01.2016 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 18.8S 32.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.01.2016 18.8S 32.8W WEAK 00UTC 06.01.2016 19.1S 31.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.01.2016 20.5S 31.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 07.01.2016 21.4S 34.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.01.2016 22.2S 36.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.01.2016 23.4S 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.01.2016 25.9S 38.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.01.2016 28.3S 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.01.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 2.5N 173.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.01.2016 2.8N 173.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.01.2016 2.2N 172.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.01.2016 2.1N 170.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.01.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 31.3N 79.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.01.2016 31.3N 79.8W WEAK 00UTC 11.01.2016 37.1N 73.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.01.2016 45.7N 69.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 051618