000
WTNT80 EGRR 221617

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.11.2015

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK       ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 118.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212015

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 22.11.2015  17.1N 118.6W     WEAK
 00UTC 23.11.2015  18.0N 120.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.11.2015  18.9N 120.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.11.2015  19.2N 121.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.11.2015  19.1N 122.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.11.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.2N  78.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 22.11.2015  32.2N  78.6W     WEAK
 00UTC 23.11.2015  35.6N  73.1W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 23.11.2015  42.7N  66.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 24.11.2015  47.9N  60.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.11.2015  52.2N  57.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.11.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.2N 101.9W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 24.11.2015  10.2N 101.9W     WEAK
 00UTC 25.11.2015  12.1N 103.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.11.2015  13.0N 105.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 26.11.2015  13.7N 106.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 26.11.2015  14.9N 107.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 27.11.2015  16.1N 107.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 27.11.2015  17.1N 108.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 28.11.2015  18.0N 109.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 28.11.2015  19.4N 109.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 221617