000
WTNT80 EGRR 201617

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.11.2015

        TROPICAL STORM RICK       ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 110.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212015

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 20.11.2015  16.5N 110.1W   MODERATE
 00UTC 21.11.2015  17.0N 112.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.11.2015  16.9N 114.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.11.2015  16.9N 115.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.11.2015  17.2N 116.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.11.2015  18.0N 117.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.11.2015  19.0N 117.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.11.2015  20.4N 117.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.11.2015  21.4N 117.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.11.2015  22.2N 117.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.11.2015  22.7N 116.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.11.2015  21.9N 115.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.11.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 29.7N  52.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 20.11.2015  29.7N  52.1W   MODERATE
 00UTC 21.11.2015  28.8N  50.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.11.2015  30.6N  48.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 22.11.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 32.6N  75.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 23.11.2015  32.6N  75.2W     WEAK
 12UTC 23.11.2015  37.7N  68.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 24.11.2015  45.2N  62.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.11.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 31.6N  71.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 23.11.2015  31.6N  71.2W     WEAK
 00UTC 24.11.2015  37.4N  64.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 24.11.2015  50.4N  60.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 25.11.2015  54.8N  55.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.11.2015  POST-TROPICAL

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  84 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 :  9.2N 101.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 24.11.2015   9.2N 101.2W     WEAK
 12UTC 24.11.2015  10.2N 103.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.11.2015  11.1N 104.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.11.2015  12.3N 106.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.11.2015  13.2N 107.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.11.2015  14.3N 108.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 201617