000
WTNT80 EGRR 180418

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.11.2015

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.0N 126.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 18.11.2015  11.0N 126.0W     WEAK
 12UTC 18.11.2015   9.8N 126.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.11.2015  10.0N 126.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.11.2015  10.2N 127.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.11.2015  10.3N 127.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.11.2015  10.7N 128.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.11.2015  10.6N 128.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.11.2015  10.4N 129.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.11.2015  10.3N 130.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.11.2015  10.4N 130.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.11.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  24 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.0N 106.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 19.11.2015  13.0N 106.8W     WEAK
 12UTC 19.11.2015  13.8N 107.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.11.2015  15.0N 108.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.11.2015  16.1N 110.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.11.2015  16.7N 112.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.11.2015  16.7N 113.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.11.2015  16.7N 113.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.11.2015  17.1N 113.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.11.2015  18.0N 113.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.11.2015  18.8N 114.1W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 24.11.2015  19.3N 114.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  24 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 33.0N  42.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 19.11.2015  33.0N  42.3W     WEAK
 12UTC 19.11.2015  38.0N  36.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.11.2015  42.7N  30.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 20.11.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 10.8N 114.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 19.11.2015  10.8N 114.3W     WEAK
 00UTC 20.11.2015  10.5N 114.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.11.2015  10.5N 113.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.11.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  54 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 31.5N  43.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 20.11.2015  33.4N  43.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.11.2015  40.5N  43.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.11.2015  45.5N  45.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 22.11.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 180417