000
WTNT80 EGRR 161617

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.11.2015

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.6N 125.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 16.11.2015  13.6N 125.6W     WEAK
 00UTC 17.11.2015  12.7N 125.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.11.2015  11.8N 126.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.11.2015  10.6N 126.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.11.2015   9.9N 127.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.11.2015   9.8N 127.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.11.2015  10.1N 128.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.11.2015   9.9N 128.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.11.2015   9.8N 129.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.11.2015  10.2N 129.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.11.2015   9.9N 130.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.11.2015   9.8N 130.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.11.2015  10.1N 130.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.1N 113.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 18.11.2015  11.1N 113.8W     WEAK
 00UTC 19.11.2015  11.5N 112.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.11.2015  12.4N 112.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.11.2015  13.4N 112.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.11.2015  14.7N 113.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 21.11.2015  15.8N 114.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.11.2015  16.5N 115.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.11.2015  17.3N 116.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.11.2015  19.1N 115.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 10.2N  91.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 22.11.2015  10.2N  91.7W     WEAK
 12UTC 22.11.2015  10.3N  93.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 161617