000 WTNT80 EGRR 150417 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.11.2015 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 13.1N 125.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.11.2015 13.1N 125.7W WEAK 00UTC 17.11.2015 13.0N 125.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.11.2015 11.5N 126.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.11.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.0N 114.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.11.2015 13.4N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.11.2015 14.6N 113.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.11.2015 15.8N 114.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.11.2015 16.7N 116.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 9.1N 87.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.11.2015 9.1N 87.0W WEAK 00UTC 20.11.2015 9.1N 87.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.11.2015 9.4N 87.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.11.2015 9.7N 87.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 29.5N 49.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.11.2015 28.6N 51.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.11.2015 26.5N 52.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 150417