000
WTNT80 EGRR 251618

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.10.2015

             HURRICANE OLAF       ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 144.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192015

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 25.10.2015  21.6N 144.2W   MODERATE
 00UTC 26.10.2015  23.0N 143.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 26.10.2015  25.3N 141.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 27.10.2015  26.4N 138.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 27.10.2015  27.8N 135.9W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 28.10.2015  28.6N 133.4W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 28.10.2015  28.1N 132.4W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 29.10.2015  26.7N 133.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.10.2015  25.6N 137.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.10.2015  25.1N 140.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.10.2015  25.7N 143.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 31.10.2015  27.0N 145.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 31.10.2015  29.2N 147.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 27.4N  95.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 25.10.2015  27.4N  95.6W     WEAK
 00UTC 26.10.2015  29.3N  92.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.10.2015  30.0N  92.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.10.2015  30.3N  90.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 27.10.2015  31.3N  90.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 28.10.2015  34.9N  90.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 28.10.2015  40.6N  88.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 29.10.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  18 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 12.5N 125.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 26.10.2015  12.6N 126.0W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 27.10.2015  13.4N 126.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 27.10.2015  14.6N 126.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 28.10.2015  15.1N 127.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 28.10.2015  15.5N 127.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.10.2015  15.2N 127.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.10.2015  15.4N 127.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.10.2015  14.3N 126.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.10.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 251618