000 WTNT80 EGRR 250418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.10.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.7N 99.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.10.2015 22.7N 99.5W WEAK 12UTC 25.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE OLAF ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 144.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.10.2015 20.0N 144.9W MODERATE 12UTC 25.10.2015 21.1N 144.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2015 22.5N 143.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.10.2015 23.9N 142.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.10.2015 25.0N 140.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2015 27.2N 138.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2015 27.5N 137.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2015 27.0N 138.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.10.2015 26.9N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.10.2015 27.1N 145.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.10.2015 28.5N 147.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.10.2015 30.2N 148.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.10.2015 31.9N 147.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.8N 127.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.10.2015 11.8N 127.0W WEAK 12UTC 25.10.2015 11.1N 126.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2015 12.0N 126.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2015 12.5N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2015 13.3N 126.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2015 14.4N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2015 15.1N 128.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2015 15.5N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.10.2015 15.9N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.10.2015 16.1N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.10.2015 15.6N 132.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.10.2015 14.6N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.10.2015 13.9N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 27.6N 96.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.10.2015 27.6N 96.4W WEAK 00UTC 26.10.2015 28.0N 94.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2015 28.9N 93.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2015 29.7N 91.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2015 31.0N 91.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.10.2015 34.1N 90.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 30.6N 114.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.10.2015 30.6N 114.2W MODERATE 00UTC 31.10.2015 29.3N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 250418