000 WTNT80 EGRR 201618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.10.2015 HURRICANE OLAF ANALYSED POSITION : 10.6N 140.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.10.2015 10.6N 140.8W MODERATE 00UTC 21.10.2015 11.3N 142.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2015 11.9N 143.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2015 12.5N 144.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2015 13.2N 144.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2015 14.5N 145.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2015 16.1N 145.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2015 17.7N 145.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.10.2015 18.6N 144.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.10.2015 19.2N 144.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2015 20.2N 144.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2015 21.5N 144.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2015 23.1N 143.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.0N 94.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.10.2015 12.0N 94.0W WEAK 00UTC 21.10.2015 12.3N 95.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2015 13.1N 97.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2015 14.2N 100.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2015 14.3N 103.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2015 15.1N 104.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2015 16.8N 104.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2015 18.1N 103.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 30.7N 20.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.10.2015 30.7N 20.7W WEAK 12UTC 22.10.2015 28.6N 23.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2015 26.4N 24.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2015 25.0N 24.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2015 23.3N 23.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 32.2N 59.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.10.2015 32.2N 59.8W WEAK 00UTC 24.10.2015 36.0N 56.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2015 40.6N 50.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.10.2015 44.8N 41.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2015 49.1N 28.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.10.2015 48.7N 20.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.10.2015 49.4N 16.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 11.0N 123.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.10.2015 11.5N 123.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2015 12.6N 122.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2015 13.4N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.3N 108.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.10.2015 14.3N 108.9W WEAK 00UTC 26.10.2015 15.8N 107.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2015 17.4N 107.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 28.6N 94.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.10.2015 28.6N 94.2W WEAK 00UTC 26.10.2015 29.3N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2015 29.7N 91.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 201618