000 WTNT80 EGRR 200418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.10.2015 HURRICANE OLAF ANALYSED POSITION : 10.0N 139.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.10.2015 10.0N 139.5W MODERATE 12UTC 20.10.2015 10.3N 141.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2015 10.8N 142.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.10.2015 11.5N 143.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2015 12.2N 145.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2015 13.0N 145.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2015 14.2N 146.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2015 15.9N 147.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2015 17.5N 147.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2015 18.6N 147.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2015 19.7N 147.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2015 21.1N 147.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2015 22.8N 146.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 12.6N 93.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.10.2015 12.8N 94.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2015 12.3N 94.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2015 13.1N 96.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2015 14.1N 98.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2015 15.6N 101.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2015 16.5N 103.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2015 16.9N 104.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2015 17.2N 104.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 29.7N 21.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.10.2015 29.7N 21.2W WEAK 12UTC 22.10.2015 27.2N 23.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2015 24.8N 24.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2015 23.4N 23.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2015 22.2N 24.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 30.4N 60.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.10.2015 31.8N 59.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.10.2015 35.1N 58.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2015 37.2N 58.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 11.2N 123.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.10.2015 11.2N 123.4W WEAK 00UTC 26.10.2015 12.3N 122.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 17.3N 107.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.10.2015 18.0N 106.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 34.3N 65.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.10.2015 34.4N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 200418