000 WTNT80 EGRR 191618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.10.2015 HURRICANE OLAF ANALYSED POSITION : 9.7N 137.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.10.2015 9.7N 137.9W MODERATE 00UTC 20.10.2015 9.8N 139.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2015 10.3N 141.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2015 10.8N 143.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.10.2015 11.6N 144.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2015 12.2N 145.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2015 13.0N 146.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2015 14.2N 146.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2015 15.8N 146.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2015 17.6N 146.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2015 18.9N 146.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2015 20.0N 146.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2015 21.1N 147.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 13.2N 93.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.10.2015 12.0N 92.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.10.2015 12.7N 93.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2015 12.7N 94.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2015 12.9N 95.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2015 14.3N 98.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2015 14.8N 102.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2015 15.6N 103.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2015 17.0N 103.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2015 18.0N 102.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 31.6N 17.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.10.2015 30.2N 19.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2015 27.5N 22.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2015 25.2N 23.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2015 23.4N 23.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 32.5N 61.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.10.2015 32.5N 61.3W WEAK 00UTC 24.10.2015 35.8N 57.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.10.2015 42.0N 52.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.10.2015 45.0N 49.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2015 47.0N 47.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 10.2N 124.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.10.2015 10.7N 124.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 191618