000
WTNT80 EGRR 190418

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.10.2015

             HURRICANE OLAF       ANALYSED POSITION :  9.4N 135.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192015

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 19.10.2015   9.4N 135.2W    STRONG
 12UTC 19.10.2015   9.3N 137.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.10.2015   9.4N 139.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.10.2015  10.0N 141.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.10.2015  10.6N 143.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.10.2015  11.1N 144.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.10.2015  11.8N 145.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.10.2015  12.5N 146.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.10.2015  13.9N 146.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.10.2015  15.6N 147.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.10.2015  17.3N 147.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.10.2015  18.3N 148.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.10.2015  18.8N 149.5W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  24 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.2N  93.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 20.10.2015  12.2N  93.8W     WEAK
 12UTC 20.10.2015  12.4N  93.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.10.2015  12.5N  94.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.10.2015  12.9N  96.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 22.10.2015  13.3N  99.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.10.2015  13.8N 102.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.10.2015  15.5N 103.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.10.2015  17.1N 104.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 24.10.2015  19.2N 102.9W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 24.10.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  66 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 32.5N  17.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 22.10.2015  31.2N  19.1W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 22.10.2015  28.3N  21.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.10.2015  25.9N  21.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.10.2015  25.0N  22.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.10.2015  24.2N  22.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.10.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  84 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 13.9N  22.9W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 22.10.2015  13.9N  22.9W     WEAK
 00UTC 23.10.2015  14.6N  20.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.10.2015  15.4N  18.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.10.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 190417