000 WTNT80 EGRR 180418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.10.2015 TROPICAL STORM OLAF ANALYSED POSITION : 9.0N 131.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.10.2015 9.0N 131.0W MODERATE 12UTC 18.10.2015 9.5N 133.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2015 9.8N 135.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2015 9.8N 137.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2015 10.0N 139.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.10.2015 10.5N 141.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2015 11.1N 142.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2015 11.8N 144.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2015 12.8N 145.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2015 14.0N 145.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2015 15.5N 146.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2015 17.2N 146.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2015 18.4N 147.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.7N 94.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.10.2015 12.1N 95.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.10.2015 12.4N 96.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.10.2015 13.0N 99.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2015 13.4N 101.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2015 15.0N 103.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2015 16.4N 104.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.10.2015 18.2N 103.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2015 21.1N 101.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 29.7N 19.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.10.2015 27.9N 20.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 22.10.2015 26.9N 20.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2015 26.7N 21.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2015 26.2N 21.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2015 25.4N 20.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 32.7N 61.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.10.2015 32.7N 61.2W WEAK 12UTC 23.10.2015 35.2N 59.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2015 43.3N 53.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180418