000 WTNT80 EGRR 171618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.10.2015 TROPICAL STORM OLAF ANALYSED POSITION : 9.4N 129.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.10.2015 9.4N 129.1W WEAK 00UTC 18.10.2015 9.2N 131.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2015 9.5N 133.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2015 9.8N 135.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2015 10.0N 137.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2015 10.3N 139.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2015 10.9N 141.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.10.2015 11.4N 143.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.10.2015 12.0N 144.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2015 13.0N 145.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2015 14.1N 145.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2015 15.7N 145.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2015 17.2N 146.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.5N 94.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.10.2015 12.4N 94.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 19.10.2015 12.7N 93.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2015 13.5N 93.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.10.2015 13.9N 93.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2015 14.4N 94.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2015 15.5N 95.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 31.7N 16.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.10.2015 31.3N 17.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2015 31.5N 17.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2015 30.1N 19.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2015 28.8N 20.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 33.0N 58.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.10.2015 33.0N 58.4W WEAK 12UTC 23.10.2015 35.8N 55.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.7N 111.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.10.2015 12.7N 111.4W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 171618