000 WTNT80 EGRR 170418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.10.2015 TROPICAL STORM 19E ANALYSED POSITION : 9.5N 127.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.10.2015 9.5N 127.0W WEAK 12UTC 17.10.2015 9.4N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2015 9.5N 131.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2015 9.7N 133.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2015 10.2N 135.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2015 10.6N 137.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2015 10.9N 139.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2015 11.4N 141.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.10.2015 11.7N 143.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2015 12.1N 145.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2015 12.9N 146.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2015 13.9N 146.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2015 15.2N 146.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 12.2N 26.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.10.2015 12.2N 26.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2015 12.4N 26.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2015 12.1N 27.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2015 11.9N 27.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2015 12.5N 28.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2015 12.7N 28.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2015 13.0N 29.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2015 12.9N 29.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2015 13.0N 29.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2015 12.9N 28.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2015 13.9N 26.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2015 15.1N 24.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.0N 94.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.10.2015 12.0N 94.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2015 12.9N 93.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2015 13.8N 93.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2015 13.8N 92.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2015 14.0N 92.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2015 14.4N 93.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2015 15.1N 94.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 39.3N 57.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.10.2015 39.3N 57.1W WEAK 00UTC 20.10.2015 40.1N 52.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.10.2015 47.2N 45.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.10.2015 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 32.2N 17.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.10.2015 32.2N 17.6W MODERATE 00UTC 22.10.2015 30.7N 20.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2015 28.4N 22.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2015 26.9N 23.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170418