000 WTNT80 EGRR 160418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.10.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 152.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.10.2015 17.0N 152.5W WEAK 12UTC 16.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.2N 122.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.10.2015 10.2N 122.1W WEAK 12UTC 16.10.2015 9.9N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2015 9.3N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2015 9.4N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2015 9.5N 130.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2015 9.9N 132.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2015 10.4N 134.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2015 10.8N 136.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2015 11.1N 139.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2015 11.4N 141.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.10.2015 11.9N 143.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2015 12.3N 145.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2015 12.9N 146.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 30.4N 22.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.10.2015 30.4N 22.6W MODERATE 12UTC 16.10.2015 30.8N 18.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2015 32.7N 14.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2015 36.9N 9.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2015 42.9N 11.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2015 41.7N 16.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 17.4N 88.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.10.2015 17.4N 88.2W WEAK 00UTC 18.10.2015 18.6N 90.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2015 19.1N 92.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2015 19.7N 91.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2015 19.1N 92.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2015 18.6N 92.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2015 18.8N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2015 19.1N 92.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2015 20.2N 93.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2015 21.4N 93.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.6N 94.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.10.2015 11.6N 94.8W WEAK 12UTC 18.10.2015 12.5N 94.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2015 13.6N 93.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2015 14.1N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2015 13.6N 92.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.10.2015 12.8N 90.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 18.3N 100.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.10.2015 18.3N 100.6W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160418