000 WTNT80 EGRR 140418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.10.2015 TROPICAL STORM NORA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 150.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.10.2015 14.7N 150.0W WEAK 12UTC 14.10.2015 15.0N 151.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2015 15.5N 152.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2015 16.3N 152.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2015 16.5N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2015 17.0N 154.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2015 17.2N 154.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2015 17.0N 155.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2015 16.6N 157.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2015 16.7N 159.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2015 17.3N 162.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 33.2N 26.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.10.2015 31.7N 24.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 16.10.2015 30.3N 22.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2015 30.9N 17.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2015 34.4N 13.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2015 39.4N 11.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2015 40.3N 16.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2015 36.9N 13.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2015 35.9N 12.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2015 35.5N 12.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2015 33.9N 13.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 9.9N 121.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.10.2015 9.6N 122.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2015 9.4N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2015 9.6N 126.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2015 9.8N 129.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2015 10.3N 131.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2015 10.9N 133.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2015 11.6N 136.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2015 12.5N 138.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2015 13.4N 140.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.8N 96.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.10.2015 12.3N 95.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2015 12.9N 95.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2015 13.4N 95.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2015 13.4N 94.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 19.5N 92.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.10.2015 19.5N 92.7W WEAK 12UTC 19.10.2015 20.9N 91.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2015 21.4N 91.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 140418