000 WTNT80 EGRR 120417 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.10.2015 TROPICAL STORM NORA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 143.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.10.2015 13.4N 143.6W MODERATE 12UTC 12.10.2015 13.8N 145.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2015 14.3N 146.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2015 15.0N 147.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2015 15.8N 148.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2015 16.7N 148.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2015 17.2N 147.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2015 17.7N 147.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2015 18.4N 146.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2015 18.7N 146.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2015 18.6N 147.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2015 18.1N 148.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2015 17.3N 150.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 9.4N 124.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.10.2015 9.8N 125.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.10.2015 9.6N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2015 9.8N 130.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2015 10.0N 132.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 9.3N 98.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.10.2015 9.3N 98.3W WEAK 00UTC 17.10.2015 9.2N 100.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2015 9.5N 101.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2015 10.5N 102.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 35.4N 21.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.10.2015 35.4N 21.6W MODERATE 00UTC 18.10.2015 33.1N 20.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 120417