000 WTNT80 EGRR 050418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.10.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08C ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 172.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP082015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2015 11.9N 172.9W WEAK 12UTC 05.10.2015 11.3N 173.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE JOAQUIN ANALYSED POSITION : 32.5N 65.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2015 32.5N 65.9W INTENSE 12UTC 05.10.2015 34.4N 64.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2015 36.3N 63.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2015 38.1N 59.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 39.6N 53.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2015 40.9N 45.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 41.9N 37.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2015 43.8N 28.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2015 45.6N 23.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2015 46.1N 19.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2015 47.8N 16.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2015 50.5N 16.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2015 51.5N 16.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM OHO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 155.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP072015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2015 13.5N 155.0W MODERATE 12UTC 05.10.2015 14.2N 154.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 14.8N 153.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 15.4N 152.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 17.4N 150.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 20.8N 148.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 24.4N 145.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2015 28.4N 143.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2015 33.5N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.1N 122.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2015 14.1N 122.4W WEAK 12UTC 05.10.2015 15.4N 121.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 17.9N 121.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 18.9N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 9.9N 129.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2015 9.4N 128.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2015 10.3N 127.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 11.4N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 13.0N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 14.9N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 16.4N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 18.5N 59.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2015 19.8N 61.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2015 21.9N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2015 23.5N 64.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2015 25.3N 64.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2015 28.1N 63.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2015 31.4N 59.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 050417