000 WTNT80 EGRR 041618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.10.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08C ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 172.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP082015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2015 11.5N 172.6W WEAK 00UTC 05.10.2015 12.1N 173.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 11.9N 174.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 12.4N 176.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 12.7N 179.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 13.2N 177.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE JOAQUIN ANALYSED POSITION : 30.5N 67.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2015 30.5N 67.0W INTENSE 00UTC 05.10.2015 33.0N 66.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2015 34.8N 65.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2015 36.7N 63.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2015 38.6N 59.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 40.2N 53.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2015 41.5N 45.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 42.5N 36.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2015 45.3N 26.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2015 47.3N 21.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2015 47.7N 18.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2015 48.6N 15.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2015 50.2N 12.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM OHO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 154.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP072015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2015 13.3N 154.2W MODERATE 00UTC 05.10.2015 14.0N 154.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 15.0N 154.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 15.1N 154.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 15.4N 152.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 17.3N 150.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 20.8N 148.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 24.8N 146.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2015 29.2N 143.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2015 34.2N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.4N 122.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2015 14.4N 122.5W WEAK 00UTC 05.10.2015 14.6N 122.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 15.6N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 17.2N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 19.3N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 20.2N 122.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 26.9N 52.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2015 26.9N 52.2W WEAK 00UTC 05.10.2015 26.5N 52.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 26.5N 50.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 27.6N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 28.0N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 10.1N 129.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2015 10.1N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 10.7N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 11.2N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 12.6N 129.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 13.9N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 15.4N 132.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2015 17.2N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2015 18.3N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 16.7N 55.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.10.2015 16.7N 55.2W WEAK 00UTC 08.10.2015 18.8N 58.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2015 20.4N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2015 22.4N 61.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2015 24.2N 61.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2015 25.6N 61.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2015 27.2N 60.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041617