000 WTNT80 EGRR 031618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.10.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08C ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 171.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP082015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2015 12.2N 171.1W WEAK 00UTC 04.10.2015 11.9N 171.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 12.0N 172.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 11.3N 173.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 11.4N 175.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 12.6N 176.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 13.0N 179.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 13.6N 177.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 14.1N 174.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 14.7N 172.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2015 15.4N 168.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2015 15.9N 165.2E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2015 16.3N 161.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE JOAQUIN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 72.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2015 25.6N 72.4W STRONG 00UTC 04.10.2015 28.2N 69.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 31.4N 67.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 33.7N 67.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 35.6N 66.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2015 38.2N 64.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 41.0N 60.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2015 43.6N 53.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 46.0N 44.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2015 48.8N 33.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2015 51.4N 25.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2015 51.7N 19.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2015 53.4N 15.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 110.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2015 17.1N 110.5W WEAK 00UTC 04.10.2015 17.4N 109.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07C ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 154.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP072015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2015 12.5N 154.9W MODERATE 00UTC 04.10.2015 12.9N 154.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 13.0N 154.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 14.0N 154.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 14.4N 155.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 14.7N 154.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2015 15.9N 153.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 18.3N 151.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2015 22.9N 148.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2015 27.8N 147.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.10.2015 31.9N 144.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2015 37.1N 139.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2015 44.7N 133.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 27.5N 52.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2015 27.5N 52.8W WEAK 00UTC 04.10.2015 27.7N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 27.3N 53.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 28.0N 52.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 17.2N 53.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.10.2015 18.2N 55.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2015 20.1N 57.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2015 21.7N 58.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2015 23.4N 60.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2015 24.9N 60.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 19.9N 96.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.10.2015 19.9N 96.7W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 031617