000 WTNT80 EGRR 030418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.10.2015 HURRICANE JOAQUIN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 74.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2015 24.2N 74.1W STRONG 12UTC 03.10.2015 25.6N 72.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 27.8N 69.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2015 31.0N 67.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 33.5N 66.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 35.0N 65.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2015 36.6N 63.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 38.2N 58.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 39.7N 52.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2015 40.9N 44.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 42.0N 35.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2015 44.5N 26.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2015 47.9N 22.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.4N 155.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2015 11.4N 155.3W MODERATE 12UTC 03.10.2015 12.4N 154.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 12.8N 153.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 13.1N 154.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 14.1N 154.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 14.7N 155.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 15.0N 154.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 15.5N 153.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 17.0N 151.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 19.7N 150.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2015 23.3N 149.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2015 26.3N 148.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.10.2015 29.8N 145.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 17.8N 109.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2015 17.8N 109.8W WEAK 12UTC 03.10.2015 17.8N 109.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 18.2N 108.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 20.9N 106.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 27.1N 51.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2015 27.1N 51.8W WEAK 12UTC 03.10.2015 27.5N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 27.3N 53.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 28.0N 53.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 28.3N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 29.6N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 12.2N 171.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2015 11.6N 171.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2015 11.8N 172.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 12.2N 172.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 12.0N 174.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 11.6N 175.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 12.2N 177.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 12.6N 179.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 13.4N 178.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 13.8N 174.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 14.4N 172.1E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2015 15.3N 168.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2015 15.8N 165.0E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 18.0N 51.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.10.2015 18.0N 51.5W WEAK 12UTC 07.10.2015 20.5N 53.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2015 22.4N 54.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2015 24.3N 55.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2015 26.0N 55.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 33.3N 72.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.10.2015 33.3N 72.1W WEAK 12UTC 07.10.2015 34.7N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 34.1N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2015 33.6N 66.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2015 32.8N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 030418