000 WTNT80 EGRR 021618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.10.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 109.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2015 17.6N 109.4W WEAK 00UTC 03.10.2015 17.7N 109.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 17.2N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 18.6N 108.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 20.9N 107.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 22.7N 106.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE JOAQUIN ANALYSED POSITION : 23.3N 74.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2015 23.3N 74.7W STRONG 00UTC 03.10.2015 24.2N 74.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2015 25.3N 73.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2015 27.4N 70.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 30.6N 68.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 33.9N 67.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 36.3N 67.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2015 38.9N 65.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 41.5N 61.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 44.2N 53.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 47.6N 42.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 49.5N 31.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2015 51.5N 21.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.7N 171.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2015 12.7N 171.6W WEAK 00UTC 03.10.2015 13.0N 171.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 12.5N 171.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 12.9N 171.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 12.5N 171.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 13.2N 172.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 13.9N 173.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 14.7N 174.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 15.5N 175.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 16.1N 178.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 15.9N 178.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 16.0N 175.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2015 16.1N 172.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 26.2N 53.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2015 26.2N 53.2W WEAK 00UTC 03.10.2015 27.0N 52.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 27.6N 53.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 26.7N 53.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 27.1N 53.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 25.8N 52.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 26.9N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 27.8N 51.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 29.5N 52.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.9N 155.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2015 11.9N 155.2W MODERATE 12UTC 03.10.2015 13.0N 153.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 13.3N 154.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 13.9N 154.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 14.6N 155.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 15.2N 155.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 15.5N 154.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 15.7N 153.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 16.5N 151.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 19.3N 149.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 22.0N 147.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2015 25.5N 145.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 28.8N 30.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2015 28.8N 30.4W WEAK 12UTC 03.10.2015 33.5N 23.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2015 39.5N 14.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2015 44.5N 8.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 15.6N 122.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.10.2015 15.6N 122.4W WEAK 12UTC 06.10.2015 17.6N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 19.6N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 21.1N 125.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 23.0N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 20.4N 50.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.10.2015 20.4N 50.2W WEAK 12UTC 07.10.2015 23.2N 50.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 25.1N 49.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2015 26.9N 49.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 35.2N 39.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2015 35.3N 37.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 021618