000 WTNT80 EGRR 020418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.10.2015 HURRICANE JOAQUIN ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 74.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2015 23.1N 74.3W STRONG 12UTC 02.10.2015 23.1N 74.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2015 23.9N 74.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 24.9N 72.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2015 27.1N 70.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 29.7N 68.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 32.0N 67.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 34.2N 66.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2015 36.0N 65.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2015 37.7N 62.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 40.0N 57.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2015 42.6N 49.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2015 45.0N 41.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 107.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2015 17.4N 107.5W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2015 17.8N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 17.6N 110.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 17.8N 110.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 18.0N 110.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 19.6N 108.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 22.0N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 25.5N 54.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2015 25.5N 54.7W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2015 25.8N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 26.7N 51.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 27.6N 51.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 26.5N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 26.3N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 27.1N 52.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 27.6N 53.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 29.3N 51.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 31.7N 50.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 12.4N 173.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2015 12.3N 172.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 12.6N 172.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2015 13.0N 171.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 13.1N 172.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 13.3N 173.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 12.9N 174.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 12.6N 175.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 13.1N 176.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2015 13.2N 179.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 13.3N 178.8E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 13.5N 176.5E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 13.6N 173.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 12.3N 157.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2015 12.3N 157.0W WEAK 00UTC 03.10.2015 12.2N 156.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 12.9N 154.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 13.5N 155.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2015 13.8N 155.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2015 14.8N 156.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2015 15.4N 156.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 16.1N 156.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 16.7N 154.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 18.7N 152.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 22.2N 149.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2015 26.6N 147.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 33.9N 22.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2015 33.9N 22.1W WEAK 00UTC 04.10.2015 38.6N 14.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2015 45.5N 9.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 13.2N 126.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2015 13.0N 126.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 13.4N 126.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 14.3N 126.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 15.1N 126.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 16.1N 128.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 17.6N 130.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 19.3N 132.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 21.6N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.8N 40.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2015 15.9N 42.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.10.2015 17.5N 45.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 20.2N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 21.9N 48.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 24.7N 48.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2015 27.1N 48.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 39.0N 49.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2015 39.2N 49.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.10.2015 40.2N 50.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 42.3N 48.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 44.2N 45.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2015 46.7N 33.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2015 48.2N 20.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 31.1N 77.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.10.2015 30.2N 78.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 020418