000 WTNT80 EGRR 011618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.10.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8N 105.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2015 16.8N 105.5W WEAK 00UTC 02.10.2015 16.6N 107.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 17.1N 108.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 16.8N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 17.3N 109.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 18.2N 108.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 20.5N 107.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 22.6N 106.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE JOAQUIN ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 73.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2015 23.1N 73.8W STRONG 00UTC 02.10.2015 22.7N 74.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2015 22.8N 74.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 23.4N 74.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 24.2N 72.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 25.8N 70.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2015 27.6N 67.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2015 29.2N 66.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2015 30.8N 66.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2015 32.8N 65.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 34.8N 64.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 37.0N 62.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 39.5N 58.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 25.4N 55.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2015 26.1N 54.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.10.2015 26.0N 53.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 26.3N 52.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 27.5N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 27.2N 53.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 26.6N 54.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 27.6N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 27.5N 54.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 12.3N 156.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2015 12.4N 155.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 12.5N 155.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 13.1N 154.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 13.6N 154.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2015 14.5N 155.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2015 15.6N 156.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 16.4N 156.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 17.1N 155.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 17.3N 154.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 18.3N 153.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2015 18.7N 153.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.2N 171.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2015 12.7N 172.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2015 12.9N 171.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2015 13.6N 170.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2015 13.7N 171.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 13.4N 172.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 13.6N 173.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 14.6N 173.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 16.3N 174.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 17.8N 175.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 19.4N 178.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 21.1N 179.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 13.8N 126.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2015 13.8N 126.4W WEAK 12UTC 03.10.2015 13.9N 125.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 13.9N 127.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 13.7N 128.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 13.6N 128.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 13.9N 129.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 14.3N 129.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2015 15.2N 130.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 17.0N 131.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 19.3N 133.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.2N 38.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2015 14.3N 40.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 16.3N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 17.2N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 18.0N 47.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2015 19.8N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 22.5N 49.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 33.3N 75.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.10.2015 33.3N 75.9W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 011618