000 WTNT80 EGRR 010418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.10.2015 HURRICANE JOAQUIN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N 73.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2015 24.1N 73.1W STRONG 12UTC 01.10.2015 23.0N 73.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2015 22.7N 74.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 22.8N 74.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 23.7N 74.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 25.1N 73.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 27.5N 71.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2015 30.6N 69.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2015 33.6N 69.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2015 36.2N 69.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2015 39.2N 69.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 42.2N 66.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2015 45.2N 61.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 103.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2015 16.6N 103.6W WEAK 12UTC 01.10.2015 16.7N 105.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2015 16.0N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 16.0N 107.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 16.5N 107.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 17.3N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 18.5N 108.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 20.4N 107.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 23.4N 106.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 26.0N 55.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2015 25.6N 54.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 26.1N 52.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 25.7N 52.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 25.9N 51.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 25.0N 52.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 24.5N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 26.0N 53.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 26.2N 55.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 27.3N 55.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 28.7N 56.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 29.9N 56.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.6N 173.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2015 11.8N 173.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2015 11.6N 171.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2015 12.6N 170.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2015 13.3N 171.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 13.2N 171.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 13.9N 170.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 15.6N 170.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 17.5N 169.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 19.4N 168.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2015 21.1N 168.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 14.5N 125.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2015 13.7N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 14.9N 126.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 14.8N 128.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 14.8N 130.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 14.5N 131.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 14.7N 132.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 14.5N 133.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 14.9N 134.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 15.0N 136.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 15.8N 137.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.0N 156.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2015 12.7N 155.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2015 13.3N 154.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2015 14.2N 154.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2015 15.0N 154.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2015 15.9N 155.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 17.2N 155.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 19.5N 156.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.10.2015 20.8N 156.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 21.9N 155.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 21.9N 154.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 32.2N 25.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2015 34.3N 23.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 04.10.2015 39.7N 15.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 44.9N 11.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2015 48.7N 6.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 16.6N 41.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2015 16.6N 41.8W WEAK 00UTC 06.10.2015 18.2N 45.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 19.4N 47.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2015 21.1N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 29.9N 79.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2015 29.9N 79.0W WEAK 00UTC 06.10.2015 30.0N 78.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 30.6N 75.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 31.6N 73.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 31.9N 114.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.10.2015 31.9N 114.0W WEAK 00UTC 07.10.2015 33.5N 114.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 10.0N 178.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.10.2015 10.0N 178.9W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010418