000 WTNT80 EGRR 301618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.09.2015 HURRICANE JOAQUIN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.0N 72.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2015 25.0N 72.4W STRONG 00UTC 01.10.2015 24.1N 73.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2015 23.6N 74.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2015 23.4N 75.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2015 23.9N 75.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 25.5N 75.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 27.6N 75.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 30.8N 74.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 34.5N 75.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2015 36.0N 78.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 05.10.2015 34.8N 81.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.10.2015 34.5N 80.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 102.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2015 16.4N 102.4W WEAK 00UTC 01.10.2015 16.6N 104.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2015 16.4N 105.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2015 16.6N 106.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 17.7N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 18.4N 108.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 19.7N 108.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 20.9N 108.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 23.0N 107.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.0N 157.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2015 12.0N 157.2W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2015 13.0N 155.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 13.3N 154.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2015 14.4N 153.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2015 15.3N 153.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2015 16.1N 153.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 16.9N 153.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 17.8N 152.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 19.2N 151.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 20.9N 149.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 25.2N 54.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2015 25.5N 54.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2015 25.3N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 25.0N 53.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 24.8N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 24.8N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 25.5N 53.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 26.0N 53.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 27.4N 53.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 28.4N 54.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.9N 126.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2015 13.9N 126.8W WEAK 00UTC 03.10.2015 14.3N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 14.3N 129.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 14.1N 130.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 14.1N 131.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 13.9N 132.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 14.5N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 14.9N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 15.8N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 26.3N 39.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2015 26.3N 39.3W WEAK 00UTC 03.10.2015 27.5N 34.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 29.2N 29.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 32.6N 24.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 32.3N 25.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2015 34.3N 22.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 39.4N 16.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2015 44.5N 10.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 10.1N 167.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2015 11.1N 166.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2015 12.4N 166.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 14.1N 165.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 15.8N 165.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 17.1N 164.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2015 17.5N 163.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 31.4N 114.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.10.2015 31.4N 114.0W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 301618