000 WTNT80 EGRR 300418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.09.2015 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 71.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2015 25.6N 71.2W MODERATE 12UTC 30.09.2015 24.7N 72.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 01.10.2015 24.2N 72.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2015 23.7N 74.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2015 23.6N 75.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 24.1N 75.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 25.5N 74.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 27.7N 73.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2015 31.7N 72.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 36.0N 73.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 38.1N 74.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2015 40.0N 75.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.10.2015 41.1N 74.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM MARTY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 101.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2015 16.3N 101.5W MODERATE 12UTC 30.09.2015 16.3N 101.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2015 16.4N 103.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2015 16.6N 104.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2015 16.7N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 17.0N 107.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 17.0N 107.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 18.4N 107.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 19.8N 107.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 22.2N 106.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 14.6N 123.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2015 14.5N 124.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 13.9N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 13.9N 126.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 14.0N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 13.4N 128.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 13.0N 129.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 13.0N 130.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 13.8N 131.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 14.2N 132.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 24.3N 58.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2015 24.3N 58.7W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2015 25.5N 55.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 26.1N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 26.6N 54.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 26.4N 55.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 25.6N 55.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 25.6N 56.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 25.4N 57.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 26.7N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.5N 157.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2015 13.0N 155.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2015 13.1N 154.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2015 14.4N 152.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 15.6N 152.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 16.4N 153.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 16.8N 153.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 17.2N 153.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 17.6N 153.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 10.7N 170.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2015 10.7N 170.6W WEAK 00UTC 03.10.2015 11.5N 168.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2015 12.6N 166.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 14.1N 165.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 16.1N 165.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 17.8N 166.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 19.3N 166.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2015 19.8N 166.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 8.2N 179.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.10.2015 9.5N 177.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 300418