000 WTNT80 EGRR 281618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.09.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.4N 68.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2015 27.4N 68.8W WEAK 00UTC 29.09.2015 28.0N 69.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2015 27.9N 70.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2015 28.1N 71.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2015 28.0N 71.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2015 27.6N 72.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2015 26.9N 73.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2015 26.5N 72.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2015 26.9N 72.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2015 27.7N 70.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2015 29.2N 68.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2015 32.0N 68.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2015 35.2N 69.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM MARTY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 102.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2015 15.9N 102.7W MODERATE 00UTC 29.09.2015 16.0N 102.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2015 15.8N 101.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2015 16.1N 100.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2015 16.5N 100.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIALA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 156.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP062015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2015 15.3N 156.6W WEAK 00UTC 29.09.2015 15.0N 158.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2015 15.1N 159.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 13.6N 120.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2015 13.5N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2015 14.4N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2015 14.5N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2015 15.0N 125.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 15.4N 127.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 15.9N 128.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 16.4N 130.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 16.9N 132.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 17.2N 133.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 25.8N 58.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2015 25.4N 58.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2015 25.6N 57.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2015 25.3N 56.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2015 25.2N 54.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 25.0N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 25.1N 48.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 23.7N 44.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 25.4N 36.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 37.9N 32.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2015 37.9N 32.4W MODERATE 00UTC 02.10.2015 38.0N 32.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 38.8N 31.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 39.6N 29.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 41.1N 26.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2015 43.6N 23.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 45.0N 21.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.5N 164.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2015 12.5N 164.6W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2015 12.0N 163.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 12.7N 162.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2015 13.9N 162.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2015 15.3N 160.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2015 17.2N 158.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.6N 146.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2015 14.7N 147.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 15.9N 146.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 22.6N 43.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2015 22.6N 43.0W WEAK 12UTC 04.10.2015 22.5N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 281618