000 WTNT80 EGRR 270418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.09.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 47.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2015 23.9N 47.4W WEAK 12UTC 27.09.2015 24.1N 48.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2015 23.5N 49.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2015 23.3N 51.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2015 23.6N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2015 24.1N 55.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2015 25.0N 56.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2015 25.7N 56.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2015 25.4N 57.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2015 24.7N 56.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2015 24.9N 55.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 25.6N 57.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2015 25.6N 58.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM NIALA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 152.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP062015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2015 16.7N 152.6W WEAK 12UTC 27.09.2015 16.4N 154.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2015 16.0N 155.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2015 15.5N 157.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2015 15.2N 158.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2015 14.9N 159.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM 17E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 103.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2015 13.4N 103.4W WEAK 12UTC 27.09.2015 14.7N 103.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2015 15.3N 103.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2015 15.8N 103.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2015 16.0N 103.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2015 15.9N 103.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2015 15.7N 102.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2015 16.1N 102.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2015 16.9N 102.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2015 17.9N 103.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 27.9N 93.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.09.2015 27.9N 93.0W WEAK 00UTC 28.09.2015 27.8N 93.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2015 29.0N 93.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2015 28.6N 94.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2015 28.0N 93.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2015 28.3N 91.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2015 28.6N 90.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2015 28.9N 88.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2015 27.7N 87.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2015 27.2N 86.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 27.6N 84.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 27.5N 84.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.7N 120.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2015 13.5N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2015 13.8N 123.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2015 13.8N 124.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2015 14.5N 125.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 15.0N 127.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2015 15.3N 129.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 13.9N 22.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2015 13.9N 22.6W WEAK 00UTC 01.10.2015 15.7N 23.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2015 17.2N 24.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2015 18.9N 25.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 21.3N 26.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 23.7N 25.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.4N 37.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2015 13.9N 37.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2015 16.1N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2015 18.0N 36.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 19.5N 34.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2015 20.6N 33.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 14.8N 169.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2015 13.9N 169.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2015 12.1N 168.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2015 10.4N 167.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2015 10.2N 166.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 36.1N 30.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2015 36.1N 30.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 35.5N 30.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 34.8N 29.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 270418