000 WTNT80 EGRR 251617 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.09.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 45.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2015 21.7N 45.2W WEAK 00UTC 26.09.2015 22.9N 45.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2015 24.0N 46.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2015 24.8N 47.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2015 24.0N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2015 23.6N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2015 22.9N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2015 21.9N 52.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2015 21.5N 53.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2015 21.2N 55.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2015 22.1N 57.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2015 22.3N 59.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2015 21.8N 60.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM NIALA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 149.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP062015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2015 14.8N 149.7W WEAK 00UTC 26.09.2015 16.1N 150.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2015 16.6N 151.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2015 16.5N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2015 16.2N 154.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2015 16.1N 156.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2015 15.8N 157.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2015 15.5N 158.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2015 15.5N 160.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2015 15.9N 161.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2015 15.7N 163.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2015 15.9N 163.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2015 13.7N 165.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.8N 104.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2015 12.8N 104.9W WEAK 00UTC 27.09.2015 13.5N 106.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2015 14.2N 106.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2015 15.2N 107.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2015 15.9N 107.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2015 16.4N 107.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2015 16.5N 107.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2015 16.6N 107.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2015 16.7N 106.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2015 17.8N 106.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2015 19.2N 108.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 36.3N 42.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.09.2015 36.5N 39.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2015 41.6N 29.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2015 45.4N 26.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 12.5N 94.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.09.2015 12.0N 95.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2015 11.8N 95.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2015 12.1N 96.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2015 11.8N 97.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2015 11.2N 97.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 33.6N 28.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.09.2015 33.6N 28.2W WEAK 00UTC 30.09.2015 34.2N 27.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2015 34.7N 27.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2015 36.6N 27.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2015 37.7N 32.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.2N 21.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2015 13.2N 21.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2015 15.3N 22.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2015 17.5N 22.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 13.5N 119.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2015 13.5N 119.1W WEAK 00UTC 01.10.2015 13.9N 120.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2015 13.7N 120.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 15.5N 37.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2015 16.1N 36.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 251617