000 WTNT80 EGRR 241617 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.09.2015 TROPICAL STORM IDA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 45.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.09.2015 20.3N 45.2W WEAK 00UTC 25.09.2015 21.3N 45.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2015 22.0N 45.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2015 22.5N 46.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2015 23.9N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2015 24.8N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2015 24.5N 48.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2015 23.5N 49.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2015 23.2N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2015 22.2N 51.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2015 22.0N 52.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2015 22.1N 53.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2015 22.1N 53.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 30.3N 79.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.09.2015 30.3N 79.9W WEAK 00UTC 25.09.2015 31.5N 80.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2015 33.0N 81.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.3N 150.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2015 14.3N 150.2W WEAK 00UTC 26.09.2015 15.1N 151.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2015 15.6N 152.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2015 15.5N 154.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2015 14.9N 156.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2015 15.1N 157.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2015 15.5N 158.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.2N 103.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2015 12.1N 104.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2015 13.0N 105.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2015 13.9N 105.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2015 15.1N 106.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2015 15.8N 106.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2015 16.4N 107.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2015 16.6N 106.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2015 16.5N 106.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2015 16.7N 106.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 36.7N 41.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2015 36.7N 41.8W WEAK 00UTC 27.09.2015 38.6N 37.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2015 42.4N 32.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2015 47.7N 27.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2015 53.7N 23.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2015 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 30.3N 90.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.09.2015 30.3N 90.8W WEAK 12UTC 29.09.2015 34.3N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2015 36.2N 92.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2015 36.0N 93.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.2N 94.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2015 11.0N 95.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2015 10.9N 95.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 12.5N 24.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2015 12.9N 24.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 241617