000 WTNT80 EGRR 180418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.09.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 45.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2015 17.0N 45.2W WEAK 12UTC 18.09.2015 18.2N 46.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2015 19.2N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2015 20.2N 49.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2015 21.4N 50.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2015 23.4N 52.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2015 25.7N 54.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2015 28.8N 56.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2015 31.3N 57.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2015 32.7N 58.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2015 33.3N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2015 33.6N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2015 34.2N 59.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 13.5N 36.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2015 13.5N 36.0W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2015 14.2N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2015 15.3N 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2015 16.8N 41.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2015 18.2N 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2015 19.1N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2015 19.1N 46.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2015 18.4N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2015 17.6N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2015 17.2N 49.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2015 17.0N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2015 17.2N 53.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 19.2N 112.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2015 19.2N 112.7W WEAK 00UTC 20.09.2015 21.1N 113.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2015 24.7N 114.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.5N 117.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2015 14.5N 117.5W WEAK 12UTC 20.09.2015 16.3N 116.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2015 18.0N 116.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2015 19.9N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 19.9N 171.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.09.2015 19.9N 171.7W MODERATE 12UTC 21.09.2015 20.3N 170.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2015 21.1N 171.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2015 20.9N 168.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2015 20.1N 171.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2015 20.1N 170.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2015 20.7N 171.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 36.8N 43.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.09.2015 36.0N 43.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 18.4N 100.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.09.2015 18.4N 100.8W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180418