000 WTNT80 EGRR 160418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.09.2015 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.4N 42.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2015 13.4N 42.6W WEAK 12UTC 16.09.2015 14.5N 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2015 15.1N 43.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2015 16.0N 44.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2015 16.4N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2015 16.7N 45.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2015 16.6N 45.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2015 17.6N 46.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2015 17.6N 47.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2015 18.8N 49.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2015 19.8N 51.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2015 20.7N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2015 21.9N 56.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.6N 31.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2015 13.0N 32.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2015 14.1N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2015 15.2N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2015 16.9N 35.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2015 17.7N 37.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2015 18.6N 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2015 18.9N 40.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2015 19.2N 41.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2015 19.1N 41.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2015 18.6N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 16.3N 173.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2015 16.3N 173.3W WEAK 12UTC 18.09.2015 17.5N 172.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2015 18.3N 172.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2015 18.7N 170.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2015 19.1N 169.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2015 20.2N 168.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2015 20.6N 168.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2015 21.1N 169.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2015 21.8N 170.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 18.2N 115.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2015 18.2N 115.5W WEAK 12UTC 19.09.2015 19.3N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2015 19.6N 116.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2015 20.1N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2015 22.0N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2015 24.7N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2015 27.2N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 32.2N 68.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2015 32.2N 68.5W WEAK 00UTC 21.09.2015 32.7N 67.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2015 33.3N 66.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2015 34.3N 65.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160418