000 WTNT80 EGRR 150417 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.09.2015 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 12.3N 42.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2015 12.8N 42.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.09.2015 13.3N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2015 14.0N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2015 14.9N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2015 15.5N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2015 16.2N 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2015 16.7N 42.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2015 16.9N 41.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2015 17.0N 41.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2015 17.1N 41.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2015 17.8N 40.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.9N 30.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2015 13.3N 31.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2015 14.3N 32.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2015 16.4N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2015 18.3N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2015 19.8N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2015 20.9N 34.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2015 21.4N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2015 21.8N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2015 22.2N 35.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 19.2N 171.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2015 19.2N 171.9W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2015 20.3N 171.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2015 20.8N 171.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2015 21.3N 170.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2015 22.1N 170.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2015 23.3N 170.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 18.4N 117.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2015 18.8N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2015 19.9N 118.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2015 22.4N 118.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2015 25.0N 120.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 29.5N 67.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2015 30.3N 67.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2015 32.6N 63.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 150417