000 WTNT80 EGRR 041618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.09.2015 TROPICAL STORM FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 37.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2015 22.2N 37.8W WEAK 00UTC 05.09.2015 22.5N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2015 22.7N 41.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2015 23.2N 42.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2015 24.2N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2015 25.7N 43.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2015 28.1N 42.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2015 30.8N 40.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2015 32.9N 38.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2015 34.0N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2015 34.4N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2015 34.3N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2015 33.9N 31.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE IGNACIO ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 164.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2015 31.9N 164.1W STRONG 00UTC 05.09.2015 34.6N 164.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2015 37.6N 165.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2015 40.4N 165.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2015 42.4N 165.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2015 44.4N 163.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2015 46.3N 158.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2015 48.2N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2015 49.2N 145.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2015 49.8N 138.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE JIMENA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 145.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2015 19.4N 145.1W STRONG 00UTC 05.09.2015 19.8N 145.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2015 20.6N 146.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2015 21.4N 147.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2015 22.5N 148.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2015 23.3N 149.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2015 24.2N 151.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2015 24.9N 153.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2015 25.3N 155.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2015 25.5N 157.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2015 25.6N 159.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2015 25.8N 161.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2015 25.9N 163.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N 115.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2015 20.8N 115.4W MODERATE 00UTC 05.09.2015 22.2N 115.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2015 23.1N 116.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2015 23.3N 116.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2015 23.4N 117.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 34.9N 44.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.09.2015 34.9N 44.9W WEAK 12UTC 06.09.2015 37.3N 41.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2015 39.7N 36.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2015 44.3N 28.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2015 49.7N 24.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.09.2015 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.1N 31.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2015 14.1N 31.7W WEAK 00UTC 07.09.2015 15.0N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2015 15.6N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2015 16.4N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2015 17.4N 43.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2015 18.3N 47.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2015 18.8N 49.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2015 19.0N 52.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2015 19.4N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.8N 112.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.09.2015 15.8N 112.1W WEAK 12UTC 07.09.2015 18.3N 114.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2015 19.4N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2015 21.5N 118.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2015 23.4N 119.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2015 25.3N 119.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2015 26.7N 118.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2015 27.1N 117.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041618