000 WTNT80 EGRR 261617 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.08.2015 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 56.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.08.2015 16.1N 56.6W WEAK 00UTC 27.08.2015 16.8N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 17.7N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2015 18.9N 64.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2015 20.0N 67.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2015 21.4N 70.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2015 22.7N 72.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2015 23.8N 74.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2015 25.0N 76.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2015 26.3N 76.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2015 27.8N 76.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2015 29.2N 75.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2015 30.0N 75.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 134.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.08.2015 12.1N 134.5W MODERATE 00UTC 27.08.2015 12.4N 136.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2015 13.1N 138.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2015 14.2N 140.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2015 15.3N 142.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2015 16.2N 143.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2015 17.1N 144.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2015 18.0N 145.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2015 18.4N 146.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2015 18.4N 148.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2015 18.1N 151.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2015 17.6N 153.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2015 16.5N 154.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 168.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP032015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.08.2015 18.8N 168.2W WEAK 00UTC 27.08.2015 18.1N 167.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 18.0N 167.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2015 17.7N 168.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2015 17.5N 168.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2015 17.5N 170.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2015 17.5N 171.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2015 17.8N 172.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2015 18.7N 172.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2015 19.8N 173.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2015 21.1N 173.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2015 22.6N 173.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2015 23.9N 173.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM LOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.7N 176.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP042015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.08.2015 34.7N 176.3W MODERATE 00UTC 27.08.2015 38.8N 179.3E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2015 45.8N 174.9E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.4N 122.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2015 12.4N 122.4W WEAK 00UTC 29.08.2015 12.1N 124.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2015 12.1N 127.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2015 12.5N 128.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2015 13.3N 131.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2015 14.3N 133.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2015 15.3N 136.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2015 16.5N 138.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2015 17.7N 140.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.4N 114.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.09.2015 13.4N 114.0W WEAK 12UTC 01.09.2015 13.4N 115.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 16.0N 25.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.09.2015 16.0N 25.2W WEAK 12UTC 01.09.2015 16.5N 26.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 41.1N 52.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2015 41.1N 52.0W MODERATE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 261617