000 WTNT80 EGRR 251618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.08.2015 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 50.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.08.2015 14.9N 50.3W WEAK 00UTC 26.08.2015 16.0N 53.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2015 16.1N 56.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 17.0N 58.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 17.8N 61.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2015 18.9N 64.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2015 20.0N 67.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2015 21.6N 69.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2015 22.8N 72.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2015 23.6N 74.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2015 24.7N 76.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2015 25.8N 78.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2015 26.9N 79.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.3N 167.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP032015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.08.2015 18.3N 167.9W WEAK 00UTC 26.08.2015 19.6N 168.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2015 19.4N 168.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 18.8N 168.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 18.3N 168.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2015 17.8N 169.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2015 17.4N 171.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2015 17.1N 172.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2015 16.8N 174.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2015 16.9N 176.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2015 16.9N 178.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2015 17.1N 179.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2015 17.3N 177.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE LOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.0N 172.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP042015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.08.2015 29.0N 172.9W STRONG 00UTC 26.08.2015 31.6N 173.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2015 34.8N 176.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 39.2N 179.9E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2015 46.6N 175.3E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 132.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.08.2015 13.0N 132.4W WEAK 00UTC 26.08.2015 12.8N 133.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2015 12.3N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 12.3N 136.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 12.8N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2015 14.2N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2015 15.3N 141.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2015 16.2N 142.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2015 16.6N 143.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2015 17.5N 145.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2015 18.3N 147.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2015 18.9N 149.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2015 19.6N 152.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.9N 123.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2015 13.2N 124.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2015 13.0N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2015 12.4N 130.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2015 12.2N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2015 11.9N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2015 12.0N 138.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2015 12.3N 141.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 251617