000 WTNT80 EGRR 231618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.08.2015 TROPICAL STORM LOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 179.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP042015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2015 20.5N 179.5W WEAK 00UTC 24.08.2015 21.9N 180.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2015 23.2N 179.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2015 24.6N 178.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2015 26.4N 175.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2015 29.3N 174.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2015 32.3N 175.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 35.5N 179.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 40.3N 177.5E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2015 47.0N 175.4E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DANNY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 56.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2015 15.8N 56.8W WEAK 00UTC 24.08.2015 15.6N 59.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2015 15.9N 61.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2015 16.2N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2015 16.7N 66.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2015 17.3N 69.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2015 17.7N 72.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 163.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP032015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2015 15.5N 163.6W WEAK 00UTC 24.08.2015 16.3N 165.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2015 17.1N 167.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2015 17.4N 168.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2015 18.9N 168.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2015 19.8N 168.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2015 19.9N 168.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 20.5N 168.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 20.2N 168.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2015 20.5N 169.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2015 20.1N 171.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2015 19.8N 173.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2015 19.4N 175.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.2N 128.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2015 12.2N 128.9W WEAK 00UTC 24.08.2015 12.4N 128.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2015 13.0N 127.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2015 12.9N 128.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2015 13.3N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2015 13.5N 129.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2015 13.9N 130.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 14.2N 132.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 14.9N 134.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2015 16.1N 135.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2015 17.4N 137.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2015 18.6N 138.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2015 19.5N 139.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 14.3N 41.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.08.2015 14.8N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2015 14.1N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2015 14.9N 50.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2015 15.8N 53.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2015 16.1N 56.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 17.0N 58.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 17.5N 61.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2015 18.5N 64.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2015 19.5N 66.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2015 20.6N 68.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2015 21.9N 70.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 16.6N 30.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.08.2015 16.6N 30.4W WEAK 00UTC 26.08.2015 17.0N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2015 18.0N 36.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 18.9N 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 20.4N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 11.2N 111.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.08.2015 11.6N 113.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2015 12.2N 116.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2015 12.8N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2015 13.1N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2015 12.9N 125.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2015 12.8N 127.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 29.0N 37.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.08.2015 29.0N 37.1W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 231618